In 2019, about 16 million foreign visitors came to Indonesia. The sector contributed $20 billion in foreign exchange revenue and employed about 13 million people or around 10 percent of the total workforce. The COVID-19 pandemic hit the industry hard. In the first half of 2020, arrivals to Indonesia were off by almost 60 percent, the industry is expected to lose $10 billion in foreign exchange revenues for the full year, and more than 90 percent of the workers in the sector have been furloughed indefinitely without pay.
Even when the world begins recovering from the pandemic, it remains unclear how quickly travelers will be willing to jump onto planes and visit the beaches of Bali, the forests of Borneo, and other popular destinations. In addition, countries dependent on tourism will all be competing for smaller groups of travelers for a while. Recovery in the tourist sector is likely to lag behind that of others.
Looking forward, we expect travelers will, at least initially, avoid in-person contact in booking, traveling, and even staying at their destinations. They will prefer shorter trips to outdoor destinations and flexible cancellation policies. In addition, those staying at hotels and other large accommodations will put a premium on visible evidence of greater cleanliness and hygiene than in the past.
To help the tourist sector rebound as quickly as possible, Indonesia should focus on two crucial areas. The first is promoting domestic tourism. Evidence from many markets has shown that domestic travel has recovered more quickly than international travel, especially among young tourists who see themselves as less vulnerable. In China, for instance, domestic air travel reached 90 percent of 2019 levels by August 2020, while international travel was still lagging well behind.
Unlike international tourists, who concentrate in Bali and East Nusa Tenggara, the majority of domestic tourists in Indonesia visit Java. To push rates of domestic tourism, the government and operators should promote lesser-known domestic attractions, like the Lake Toba region in North Sumatra, the Mandalika area in East Nusa Tenggara, and Likupang Beach in North Sulawesi. Discounts and other incentives could also help ignite domestic travel.
The country can also use the unintended lull in visitors to beef up its tourist infrastructure. The disruption provides an opportunity, for example, to improve airports, accommodations, and other facilities. The jump in digital activity brought by the pandemic can also be used to accelerate the adoption of new technologies by operators in the sector, from online booking systems to advanced analytics that can offer real-time information on tourist activities and behaviors.
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